Wednesday, 23 November, 2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine

Open-source intelligence on the Russian invasion of Ukraine and related events

17/09/2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Russian Kamov Ka-50 attack helicopter shot down in Donetsk region

Flashpoint: Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan

  • Armed clashes are continuing in the border villages of the Batken Region in south-western Kyrgyzstan.

16/09/2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Ukrainian forces are now confirmed to have crossed the Oskil River and are now in full control of the strategically important city of Kupiansk (Kharkiv).

Flashpoint: Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan

  • Kyrgyzstani parliament has stated that if Tajikistani forces do not leave the territory of Kyrgyzstan by tomorrow general mobilisation and martial law will be declared.
  • Around 120,000 people have been evacuated from their homes in an area of Kyrgyzstan where fighting is ongoing.
  • Kyrgyzstan says Tajikistan has resumed shelling after ceasefire fails to hold.
  • The escalation comes after 2,000 Russian troops pull out from military bases in Tajikistan and were sent to the war in Ukraine.
  • The number of Russian personnel in Tajikistan is estimated at up to 7,000 troops, while Kyrgyzstan reportedly hosts about 500 Russian service personnel.
  • Use of heavy weapons reported in border clashes as conflict escalates.
  • Kyrgyzstan has accused Tajik forces of using tanks, armoured vehicles and mortars.
  • Tajikistan accuses Kyrgyz troops of shelling outposts and seven villages with heavy weaponry.

15/09/2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Russian forces in the Kherson region are suffering from severe logistical difficulties.
  • Ukrainian ground forces have crossed the Oskil River and are advancing on Troitske (Luhansk).
  • Russia’s lower house of parliament will consider summoning Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu to face questioning in a closed session.
  • 1,500 soldiers from Russia’s 201st Military Base in Tajikistan have been sent to Ukraine and another 600 reportedly will soon be deployed.
  • The Ukrainian military has shot down 4 Russian Sukhoi Su-24 (NATO reporting name: Fencer) attack aircraft. 

14/09/2022

Flashpoint: Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan

  • Border troops from Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan exchanged gunfire for several hours on 14 September. At least one Tajik border guard was killed and another five were wounded in the clash.
  • Russia has called on its Central Asian allies Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to take urgent measures to bring the situation on the border between the two countries back under control after clashes.

13/09/2022

Flashpoint: Armenia/Azerbaijan

  • 50 Azerbaijani service personnel have been killed in clashes with Armenian forces.
  • Azerbaijan says it has completed its military objectives on the border with Armenia following the worst fighting between the two countries since their 2020 war.
  • Over 90 Armenian soldiers have been killed so far in clashes along the border with Azerbaijan.
  • Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) Security Council is due to meet today at 6:30 pm Moscow local time to discuss the ongoing situation on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border and discuss possible military assistance to Armenia.
  • Heavy clashes continued through the night and into today as Azerbaijan took action against what it called Armenian ‘provocations’.

Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Ukrainian forces appear to be closing in on the cities of Lysychansk and Severdonetsk (Luhansk).
  • Russia’s prestigious 1st Guards Tank Army which suffered heavy losses early in the war has been further degraded in the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kharkiv region. It will take years to rebuild the elite breakthrough formation which was reactivated in 2014: UK Defence Intelligence.
  • Russian forces are preparing another provocative shelling of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant in Energodar, Zaporizhzhia region, which is currently under Russian military control: Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
  • Russian forces have reportedly withdrawn from the city of Kreminna (Luhansk).
  • The U.S. is providing time-sensitive intelligence to help Ukraine on the battlefield: Pentagon

12/09/2022

Flashpoint: Armenia/Azerbaijan

  • Reports of artillery and drone strikes by Azerbaijan on Armenian positions.
  • Ministry of Defense of Armenia statement: “On September 13 at 00:05, units of the Azerbaijani Armed Forces opened intense fire from artillery, large-caliber small arms at Armenian positions in the direction of Goris, Sotk and Jermuk, UAVs also being used.”
  • Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan statement: “Armenian sabouters planted mines on the supply roads of Azerbaijani military in Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin, and later positions and bases of Azerbaijani army came under mortar shelling, there are casualties and material damage.”

Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Russian military command suspends sending new units to the territory of Ukraine: Ukrainian General Staff.
  • Russian forces in the Kherson region are currently negotiating a surrender of forces on the north bank of the Dnieper River.
  • Ukrainian forces have entered the city of Sviatohirsk (Donetsk).
  • Complete collapse of Russian forces on the Kharkiv front
  • Ukraine has liberated 6,000+ square kilometres of occupied territory.

10/09/2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Russian Ministry of Defence says its forces are “regrouping” from Balakliya and Izyium in Kharkiv region towards the Donetsk direction.
  • Ukrainian forces have reached the outskirts of the city of Lysychansk (Luhansk).
  • Russian forces have withdrawn from the city of Lyman (Donetsk).
  • Russian forces have withdrawn from the city of Izyum (Kharkiv).
  • Ukrainian Forces have entered the city of Kupyansk (Kharkiv).
  • Russian forces continue to suffer heavy casualties and equipment losses
  • Ukrainian forces have now liberated 2500+ km2 of occupied territory in the Kharkiv region

09/09/2022

Russian invasion of Ukraine:

  • Ukrainian forces have reached the Oskil River south of the strategically important city of Kupiansk.
  • Russian Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi was captured as Russian frontlines continue to collapse.
  • Russian-occupied Izium is under severe pressure as Ukrainian advance continues.
  • Ukrainian forces less than 50 km from the North Crimean Canal.
  • Russian 237th Guards Airborne Assault Regiment has been destroyed: Ukrainian Intelligence Directorate
  • Russia has now committed 80% of its ground forces in to Ukraine: NATO

Flashpoint: Belarus

  • Belarus has begun military exercises to practice “liberating territory temporarily seized by the enemy” and regaining control over border regions, the defence ministry stated. The manoeuvres will take place in Brest, Minsk and Vitebsk.
  • UK Defence Intelligence states that there are no indications that Belarus is preparing for involvement in the Ukraine war and that: “Belarusian forces have limited offensive capabilities and there is a remote chance that they have deployed forces into Ukraine.”
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